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At first, Trump gave the impression to adopt a strong approach concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following making statements of "significant repercussions" during the summer in case Vladimir Putin persisted hindering peace negotiations, Trump eventually introduced major penalties on the Russian two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action significantly hindered Putin's capability to support his war effort in Ukraine.

But, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, which was developed by both nations' officials excluding Ukrainian or EU involvement, Trump has apparently reverted to his favorable to Russia approach.

Benefiting Military Action

Trump's initiative would in practice reward the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's political freedom in danger. Despite bold statements that "The nation's sovereignty will be affirmed", significant aspects of the initiative effectively compromise that very autonomy. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate background, Trump continues to consider the situation in Ukraine as a simple land disagreement, as if giving Russia a section of Ukraine's territory will appease the ruler. But, Russia's military campaign is not merely about controlling a charred swath of industrial-devastated area in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear goal to weaken it so it no longer serves as an attractive standard for the Russia's population of the accountable leadership that his increasing dictatorship withholds them.

Territorial Giveaways

Although freezing in status the currently separated oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would compel the nation to give up all of Donetsk region. Aside from benefiting Russia with land that its forces have been unable to occupy in over a ten years of warfare, this giveaway would make Ukraine's defenses dangerously weakened.

The area is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the well-established military defenses that constitute a key obstacle to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, leaving Putin a unobstructed way to the capital in case he later choose to resume the conflict.

Military Reductions

Then, in a action that would make additional conflict simpler for the Russian military, the plan would force Ukraine to reduce the size of its troops from their existing approximately 800,000 troops to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's initiative imposes no equivalent restrictions on the invading army.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's campaign to portray the nation's legitimate leadership as radicals, the proposal asserts: "Every Nazi belief system and actions must be rejected and banned." As if to emphasize this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. However, the proposal sets no requirement that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by allowing elections in his own country.

Protection Commitments

To be sure, the plan has Russia pledge not to "attack other states" and to "establish in regulation its position of non-violence towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". But considering that Putin has breached similar accords in the past – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to honor Ukraine's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its historical nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a return of captured territory in the Donbas to the government – how should the international community trust Putin now?

For this reason Ukraine has been so determined on western protection assurances. While the plan warns of a "strong unified defense action" if the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics include vague to concerning. The initiative would not only block the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit member states from stationing military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thus blocking the reassurance force, reportedly commanded by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Russia from replenishing his weakened military, restocking, and attacking again.

Global Concern

Another side agreement apparently would offer the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "major, planned, and sustained armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an act of war jeopardizing the tranquility of the allied countries." This implies a military response. Yet in contrast to a powerful Ukrainian military – Ukraine's primary defense against additional invasion – the credibility of the parallel accord would hinge on the willingness of alliance members, like Trump, to react with force to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not