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Entering the world’s most-visited museum in the middle of the day, taking eight items of invaluable historical gems and disappearing into the city traffic on humble scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, carried out for global fame and subsequent Hollywood film treatments.

Specialists who observe patterns in international art crime, however, see Sunday morning’s robbery at the Louvre as something more prosaic: the most recent in a string of quick-hit thefts centered more on the monetary worth of valuable gems or materials than the historical importance, continuing a pattern that has emerged over the last ten years in Europe, the UK and the US. The location, they propose, would have been of secondary concern to the criminals.

“One might wonder why criminals who want to steal expensive jewellery are breaking into a globally renowned museum rather than a luxury jewelry store,” said Christopher A Marinello. “It's straightforward: it’s because these days a high-end boutique is more secure.”

A spate of aggressive jewellery shop thefts mean that many stores have strengthened their protection in the past few years, with armed guards on their locations and merchandise no longer shown overnight. Cultural institutions, meanwhile, look vulnerable, partly because of the inherent factor of being public-facing institutions in historic buildings, and partly the current economic climate in many developed nations.

“Since Covid, authorities across the world have cut back on law enforcement and the arts funding,” noted Marinello. “With criminals entering the Louvre, it shows how vulnerable our institutions have become. This is a horrible time to be a museum.”

The theft of the objects – featuring necklaces made up of precious stones and hundreds of gems, the tiara of Empress Eugénie containing thousands of diamonds and a extremely expensive diadem once possessed by a royal that the thieves left by the street on their way out – has inevitably drawn comparisons with the 1911 theft of the Mona Lisa from the same museum, carried out by the worker the thief.

More relevant points of reference may be the recent theft of valuables from Dresden’s Green Vault Museum worth over millions, the taking of a £4.75m gold toilet from a UK landmark the that year, the recent heist of a large gold coin from a European museum or even a spate of robberies of collector items from American institutions.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Smash, grab, and melt it down as quickly as possible.”

If the items were to stay whole, experts say, the criminals would find it hard to find a buyer. “There’s no way to sell something as recognizable as the Louvre’s jewels on the legal marketplace”, commented Lynda Albertson of the a relevant organization.

“They are too well-known, particularly given the cultural authorities has released images of the items. Even a private collector or an sales venue would want to see paperwork confirming proper ownership before handling such striking pieces.”

In the past, institutions were often hesitant to go public about the loss of well-known works of art and would stay silent out of embarrassment. These days, as art thefts are more widely publicised, the keeping and sale of taken items is risky business for any criminal.

“Taking a Picasso, it has to remain intact or it becomes worthless, and you have to devise a plan to conceal it, maybe by moving it among dangerous individuals,” noted Marinello. “There's ongoing risk to the danger of an accomplice telling the police to cash in a reward.”

For similar reasons, an art detective said it was vanishingly unlikely that the theft had been ordered. “Commissioned theft is something from films,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It’s all around the world and in all the newspapers. If you buy this, if you get caught, you go to jail. You can't display it to your friends, you cannot bequeath it to your family.”

Modifying taken items by dismantling or reshaping does lower the value. When it comes to gems, it also comes with significant danger because modern cutting techniques give stones a larger and lighter surface area, and antique-cut stones would either attract notice or reduce value for a concealment.

Crucially, however, melting down or reshaping eliminates the proof of the theft. “I suspect that the robbers will try to bring the stolen goods to places with gem knowledge like a country, another nation or even as close as a city, and locate an expert to cut out the gems,” suggested Marinello.

The heist at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about security measures at the institution, with a unauthorized state auditor report expected to be published next month pointing out “significant” and “persistent” delays in modernizing systems and observing that security cameras were lacking in many rooms. But specialists say displaying precious items in older structures with a steady stream of visitors comes with risks that are impossible to remove entirely.

“Older structures are much harder to secure,” explained Erin Thompson. “They often have large accessible windows that allows for thieves to get away, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you can’t fit them with secure windows.”

The most solid security systems for structures should be conceptualised “like a fortress”, noted Peter Stürmann. “There should be multiple levels to deter attackers.”

Contemporary structures are fitted with advanced external CCTV cameras or integrated seismic detectors that alert about a broken glass in real time, but historic institutions may be hesitant to alter their appearance. Laser scanners can be difficult to fit to decorated surfaces. Sensors may also have to be turned off during the daytime as crowds walk through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which took place between morning hours in Paris, was typical of modern robberies, Stürmann said. “There’s a good reason why thefts tend to happen at either opening or closing times. It’s often when security rotate and prior to the museum is crowded who actually act as extra protection.”

Technological progress may have introduced new devices that can raise the alarm more quickly and effectively, but it has also given thieves new methods with which to bypass security measures. In the city, the robbers accessed the museum’s upper level with a mobile equipment and cut through a window with a electric tool.

An author said the conversation in France about the historic building had primarily focused on crowd control in the past decade, and not as much on security.

The institution has an on-site team of about fifty full-time firefighters, but their purpose is mainly to safeguard the collection from fires and water damage. “There isn't a rapid-response unit,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the safety of the Louvre all comes down to government support and money, and currently the nation lacks sufficient resources.”