Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.
Serious Obstacles in the Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
