From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro
Within the immense confusion regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – they set a truly chilling precedent.
A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move
The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday marked its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.
The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and seize its president – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.
Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis
Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.
From Global Policeman to International Outlaw
A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a lawless actor.
He holds the view that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will be financially free”.
A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy
George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.
Disregard the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
No one buys the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.
World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN
The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.
Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.
Barely 12 months into his presidential term. The international community may live to repent if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.